EU Sidesteps Hungary Veto, But More Ukraine Showdowns Loom

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Hungary's refusal to support a joint EU statement on Ukraine highlights deepening divisions within the bloc. While the other 26 member states continue to back Ukraine, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán aligns with U.S.-led peace talks and criticizes prolonged EU support. Despite Hungary's opposition, the EU advances plans for funding and military aid to Ukraine, though future unanimity on sanctions and Ukraine's EU accession remains uncertain.

The divide between Hungary and the rest of the European Union (EU) over the war in Ukraine appeared more pronounced than ever on Thursday when Budapest chose not to endorse a joint summit statement for the second time in two weeks.

However, rather than engaging in prolonged discussions with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to achieve unanimous consensus among all 27 member states — a strategy often employed at past EU gatherings — the remaining countries opted to move forward without Hungary's agreement.

"The European Council reaffirms its continued and unwavering support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders," stated the official declaration signed by 26 EU nations.

Budapest had made its intentions clear in advance, signaling its refusal to give a green light to the joint statement. Unlike previous situations where the EU has shown ambivalence toward U.S.-led talks with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine, Orbán has openly embraced these negotiations, which have largely excluded both Kyiv and the EU.

"In our understanding, there is one simple mission for the European Union: to support [U.S.] President Donald Trump's efforts to make peace," Orbán told the press on the eve of the Brussels summit, notably refraining from making an official arrival statement.

Orbán, who maintains the closest relationship with Moscow of any EU leader, has argued that continued EU support for Ukraine only prolongs the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, drawing widespread international condemnation.

EU diplomats from other member states expressed that pursuing a consensus with Hungary was a futile effort. What might have been a significant issue in more stable times has become increasingly normalized amid the current geopolitical climate.

Traditionally, the EU strives to secure unanimous agreement from all member states, even when it is not strictly necessary for non-binding messages of support, such as Thursday's declaration. However, there remains a great deal that the EU can achieve without Hungary's participation. The conclusions emphasized the EU's commitment to providing financial assistance, military support, and security guarantees to deter potential future aggression from Russia.

With indications that the U.S. is gradually disengaging from Kyiv and Europe, EU diplomat Kaja Kallas is working to secure additional EU funding for Ukraine. On Thursday, the 26 EU states authorized her to continue these efforts on a voluntary basis. Reports from diplomatic sources suggested that up to 40 billion euros could be made available, including 5 billion for ammunition, though no final decisions have been made.

Over the past three years, Hungary has consistently blocked portions of EU funding for Ukraine through its veto power. However, Kallas's current initiative to raise new funds would not require Hungary's consent since it is a voluntary effort.

Nevertheless, there are issues where such workarounds are not possible, and unanimity is required. Backed by Baltic and Nordic countries, Ukraine is pushing to formally begin EU accession talks this year. While European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested that Ukraine could join the EU by 2030 if it maintains its reform efforts, many view this timeline as unrealistic, especially considering Ukraine's ongoing struggles with corruption.

Orbán has stated that Hungary would hold a referendum to determine whether its citizens support Ukraine's EU membership, threatening to block Kyiv's accession. Although Ukraine previously received unanimous approval to initiate talks after Hungary dropped a veto, this consensus now appears tenuous.

Addressing EU leaders via videolink, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized the practice of individual member states blocking critical decisions. "It's simply anti-European when one person blocks decisions that are important for the entire continent or that have already been agreed upon," Zelenskyy remarked. "Europe needs speed in making decisions and clear tools to protect itself from unnecessary blockages."

Unanimity is also necessary for implementing sanctions. Recently, EU ambassadors managed to reach a last-minute agreement with Hungary to extend sanctions against more than 2,000 individuals connected to Russia's war in Ukraine. These punitive measures require renewal every six months, and Budapest demanded the removal of several names from the sanctions list, according to multiple media reports.

With the next deadline for renewing extensive economic sanctions against Russia approaching in July, the EU is already considering a 17th package of measures. However, resistance could arise from other quarters as well. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has occasionally aligned with Orbán's stance on Ukraine, indicated he might oppose additional sanctions if they are perceived as detrimental to ongoing peace negotiations.

"We cannot stubbornly insist on sanctions at all costs," Fico remarked, as reported by the Slovak news agency TASR. "There may come a moment when we say that we disagree because we believe it goes against the peace efforts currently being made. If we perceive further sanctions as a threat to the peace process, we are ready to veto them."

Despite these divisions, cooperation in other areas persists. Orbán has expressed support for the EU's plans to significantly invest in defense, especially as the U.S. appears less willing to guarantee European security in the long term.

The situation highlights the complex balance the EU faces in maintaining unity while addressing the diverse perspectives of its member states, particularly when it comes to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the broader question of European security.