The runoff vote in Romania's presidential election will see a contest between the center-right and far-right, as social democratic Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu was beaten into third place.

Romania’s incumbent Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), is expected to be eliminated from the first round of the country’s presidential election, which will now advance to a runoff between two right-wing candidates.

As of Monday morning, with 99.9% of votes counted, hard-right NATO-sceptic Calin Georgescu was leading with 22.9% of the vote. The ballots cast by Romanians living abroad pushed center-right candidate Elena Lasconi into second place with 19.16%. Prime Minister Ciolacu, once the pre-election favorite with exit polls placing him at 25%, is now projected to finish third.

Georgescu, a former prominent member of the far-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians party, had been polling at around 5% before the election. He has expressed controversial views, including claiming that NATO would fail to protect any of its members if attacked by Russia, and denounced the alliance’s ballistic missile defense shield in the Romanian town of Deveselu as a "shame of diplomacy." His unexpected surge in the election, from single-digit ratings to a first-round lead, marks an unprecedented shift in Romania’s post-communist political landscape since 1989.

"Never in our 34 years of democracy have we seen such a surge compared to surveys," political commentator Radu Magdin told Reuters. Georgescu, confident of his growing support, said on Sunday evening, “We are strong and brave, many of us voted, and even more will do so in the second round."

The position of Romanian president is largely ceremonial, but it does carry semi-executive control over defense spending, a crucial issue for Romania, an increasingly important NATO member. Romania shares a 650-kilometer (400-mile) border with Ukraine, and its Black Sea ports play a key role in the export of Ukrainian grain. Romania faces the challenge of increasing NATO spending while addressing a significant fiscal deficit.

Ciolacu had hoped to appeal to voters by promising "stability." His government has supported Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s invasion and strengthened Romania’s role within NATO.

Lasconi, a former journalist and leader of the Save Romania Union party (USR), has focused her campaign on combating corruption, advocating for increased defense spending, and continuing aid to Ukraine.

The winner of the second round will replace the current president, Klaus Iohannis, a liberal who has supported Ukraine since taking office in 2014.