Manchester City, Newcastle, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa: Who Has the Most Favourable Run-In?

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With only a few matches remaining in the Premier League season, the battle for Champions League qualification is heating up. Just four points separate third and seventh place, leaving Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, and Aston Villa locked in a fierce contest to secure a coveted place in Europe’s top-tier competition.

Arsenal have virtually assured their spot, while Liverpool have already been crowned champions. With the relegation battle concluded and the title race settled, all eyes are now fixed on the race for the top five ahead of the final weekend.

Thanks to strong showings by English clubs in Europe this season, the Premier League has been granted an additional Champions League qualification slot. Furthermore, either Manchester United or Tottenham will claim a sixth place through their upcoming Europa League final showdown.

Let’s examine which sides are best placed to finish in the top five by the end of May.

Manchester City

Points: 65 (played 36)

Pep Guardiola has already stressed the importance of securing Champions League qualification following a challenging campaign for the reigning champions. A costly draw at Southampton denied them the opportunity to go level on points with second-placed Arsenal, and allowed those below them to close the gap.

City now face tricky encounters with Bournemouth and Fulham, both of whom are pushing to finish in the top half of the table.

Remaining fixtures:

• 18 May: Bournemouth (H)

• 25 May: Fulham (A)

Newcastle United

Points: 63 (played 35)

After their Carabao Cup triumph and emphatic victories over Manchester United and Crystal Palace, Eddie Howe’s men were brought back down to earth with a humbling 4-1 defeat to Aston Villa. A bounce-back win against Ipswich has steadied the ship, but Newcastle face a challenging run-in if they are to return to the Champions League for the second time in three seasons.

Back-to-back matches against Arsenal and Chelsea are followed by a season finale at home to Everton. It remains to be seen whether Alexander Isak’s late penalty in the 1-1 draw with Brighton proves to be a point gained or two dropped.

Remaining fixtures:

• 11 May: Chelsea (H)

• 18 May: Arsenal (A)

• 25 May: Everton (H)

Chelsea

Points: 63 (played 35)

Despite being second in the table back in December, Chelsea now find themselves embroiled in a tight race for a top-five finish. The Blues benefited from Nottingham Forest’s recent home defeat to Brentford, which allowed them to keep their fate in their own hands.

Impressive victories over Fulham, Everton, and newly crowned champions Liverpool have reignited belief among supporters. However, a tough final stretch awaits, with away trips to fellow top-five rivals Newcastle and Forest, and a home match against Manchester United.

Remaining fixtures:

• 11 May: Newcastle (A)

• 16 May: Manchester United (H)

• 25 May: Nottingham Forest (A)

Aston Villa

Points: 63 (played 36)

A hard-fought win at Bournemouth highlighted Ollie Watkins’ continued impact, keeping Villa firmly in the Champions League picture. Their final two fixtures are against Tottenham and Manchester United, both of whom are heavily focused on their European final commitments, which could work in Villa’s favour.

Remaining fixtures:

• 18 May: Tottenham (H)

• 25 May: Manchester United (A)

Nottingham Forest

Points: 61 (played 35)

Forest’s hopes of Champions League qualification have been dented by a poor run of form, with four defeats in five games and a demoralising FA Cup semi-final loss to Manchester City. A goalless draw against Crystal Palace offered little respite.

Nonetheless, a relatively manageable run-in awaits, with matches against struggling Leicester and West Ham preceding a potentially decisive final-day clash with Chelsea.

“We must look within ourselves,” said manager Nuno Espírito Santo. “I don’t see pressure; I see belief, desire, and commitment. But the truth is, we are lacking focus and determination in key moments.”

Remaining fixture

s:

• 11 May: Leicester (H)

• 18 May: West Ham (A)

• 25 May: Chelsea (H)