The UK government is working with the National Crime Agency to profile applicants from Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka for work or study visas, suspecting they may overstay and claim asylum. This initiative aims to reduce asylum claims from student visa holders. However, experts question the model's effectiveness and potential for arbitrary outcomes or legal challenges.

Nigerians, Pakistanis, and Sri Lankans applying to work or study in the UK are facing restrictions, based on suspicions that they are more likely to overstay their visas and claim asylum, according to Whitehall officials. The UK government is collaborating with the National Crime Agency (NCA) to develop models aimed at profiling applicants from these countries who might later seek asylum.

The effectiveness of such a scheme will depend on the quality of the models and the intelligence they are based on, as noted by a migration expert. Last year, nearly 10,000 asylum seekers who had entered the UK legally on work or study visas were residing in taxpayer-funded accommodation, such as hotels. Data released by the Home Office in March revealed that among these asylum seekers, the most common nationalities were Pakistan, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka.

The Guardian reported on Saturday that the government intends to reduce the number of UK student visa holders who go on to claim asylum. As part of this effort, officials will now examine the bank statements submitted by visa holders as part of their visa application process when deciding whether to grant them asylum accommodation.

The Home Office is working with the NCA to gather intelligence that will enable caseworkers to identify patterns in the profiles of individuals most likely to exploit work and study visas as a pathway to claiming asylum. Pakistani, Nigerian, and Sri Lankan visa holders are specifically identified as the most likely candidates for this kind of behavior. The authorities aim to develop a model that would flag visa applications from individuals who fit these patterns, potentially denying their visa claims on the grounds that they are likely to seek asylum.

Madeleine Sumption, the director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, pointed out the challenges in determining whether such a model would succeed. “The key question, and one that is hard to assess from the outside, is do they have the information to accurately decide who is likely to claim asylum after they arrive? Because obviously, it can be quite difficult,” she said. She emphasized that the success of the initiative would depend on whether the patterns are clear enough for accurate identification, or if it might result in arbitrary outcomes. “Without being on the inside, it really is difficult to know. I could imagine scenarios where it could have quite a big impact. I can also imagine scenarios where it actually only affects a relatively small number of people,” Sumption added.

When asked if these government plans could lead to legal challenges based on discrimination, Sumption noted that while the government has a significant amount of discretion when deciding whether to grant work and study visas to applicants from outside the UK, there are some potential legal avenues. However, in general, the government has considerable freedom to discriminate on various grounds when issuing such visas.