Seven Ethiopian Armed Groups Form Alliance To Challenge Abiy Ahmed Government

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have formed the Alliance for Survival, declaring their intention to challenge Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish an inclusive transitional government. The alliance includes the TPLF, Oromo Liberation Army and Amhara Fano, along with four smaller regional groups. The announcement comes amid renewed tensions in Tigray and continuing fighting in Amhara and Oromia. The groups accuse the government of authoritarian rule, while Ethiopia’s government has not yet publicly responded. The alliance brings together former rivals and raises fresh concerns about a possible escalation of Ethiopia’s internal conflicts.

SEVEN GROUPS JOIN FORCES AGAINST ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT

Seven Ethiopian armed and political groups have announced a new alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establishing an inclusive transitional administration.
The groups announced the formation of what they called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, commonly referred to as the Alliance for Survival, on Sunday.
The alliance brings together organisations that have previously fought the Ethiopian federal government in different parts of the country.
Its members include the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), alongside four smaller groups representing other regions and ethnic communities.
The four other groups are the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (Ugugumo), Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement.
The announcement represents an unusual alignment between groups with different political and ethnic backgrounds and, in some cases, a history of fighting on opposing sides.

ALLIANCE CALLS FOR TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT

In their joint statement, the groups said they wanted to establish a transitional government guided by a new charter.
They said the proposed arrangement would seek to end Ethiopia's armed conflicts, protect citizens' rights and create conditions for a national political dialogue.
The alliance accused Abiy's government of imposing what it described as "dictatorial rule" and claimed that the government's policies were pushing Ethiopia towards fragmentation.
Those are the alliance's own allegations and have not been independently established.
The Ethiopian federal government had not publicly commented on the announcement at the time of reporting.

MAJOR GROUPS HAVE BEEN FIGHTING THE GOVERNMENT

The three largest organisations in the alliance have been involved in major conflicts with Ethiopian federal forces.
The Fano movement has fought government forces in the Amhara region since 2023 after rejecting efforts to disband or integrate regional armed forces into the national security structure.
The OLA has been involved in an insurgency in Oromia since 2018. The government has conducted repeated military operations against the group, while different factions have pursued separate approaches to negotiations.
The TPLF, meanwhile, was the dominant political force in Ethiopia for decades before Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018.
The TPLF later became the central force in the Tigray war, which began in 2020 and formally ended with the signing of the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.

FORMER ADVERSARIES NOW SEEK COOPERATION

The alliance is particularly significant because some of its members have previously been on opposing sides of Ethiopia's conflicts.
During the Tigray war, Fano forces fought alongside Ethiopia's federal forces against the TPLF.
The war eventually involved forces from Ethiopia, Eritrea and regional militias and caused a major humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands of people estimated to have died.
The new alliance indicates that the groups now see cooperation as necessary despite their previous differences.
An Ethiopian academic, Eyob Tilahun, told Al Jazeera that the groups had agreed to dialogue and cooperation because their leaders believed they faced a common threat from the federal government.

TIGRAY PEACE DEAL UNDER PRESSURE

The announcement comes amid renewed tensions in Tigray.
The 2022 Pretoria agreement ended the two-year war between the federal government and Tigrayan forces, but several important disputes remained unresolved.
These include questions over the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, the political status of the TPLF and the disputed Western Tigray territory.
In July, the TPLF said the Pretoria agreement was effectively dead.
Fresh clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces in recent months have increased fears that the conflict could return to a much larger scale.

ETHIOPIA FACES MULTIPLE SECURITY CHALLENGES

The alliance adds another layer to Ethiopia's already complicated security situation.
Fighting has continued in parts of Amhara and Oromia, while tensions have also risen again in Tigray.
The country is Africa's second-most populous nation and has struggled to manage political disputes involving its many ethnic and regional communities.
The federal government's efforts to strengthen national institutions and reduce the independent military capabilities of regional forces have repeatedly generated resistance.
The result has been a series of armed conflicts rather than one single nationwide rebellion.

ABiy'S RISE TO POWER

Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018 after years of political unrest and protests.
His early government introduced several reforms, including releasing political prisoners, allowing previously banned political groups to operate and improving relations with neighbouring Eritrea.
His peace initiative with Eritrea earned him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.
However, political tensions later increased, particularly between Abiy's federal government and the TPLF.
The disagreement eventually developed into the Tigray war in 2020.

TIGRAY WAR LEFT DEEP DIVISIONS

The Tigray conflict became one of the most devastating wars in Africa in recent years.
Federal forces and their allies fought Tigrayan forces for two years before the Pretoria agreement brought large-scale fighting to an end.
The conflict caused widespread displacement, destruction of infrastructure and severe humanitarian problems.
Although the peace agreement reduced the intensity of the war, several political and territorial disputes remained unresolved.
The renewed fighting has raised concerns that those unresolved issues could once again develop into a wider conflict.

WHAT THE NEW ALLIANCE COULD MEAN

The effectiveness of the new Alliance for Survival remains uncertain.
The seven groups operate in different regions, have different political objectives and have previously disagreed with one another.
Bringing them together politically and militarily could therefore prove difficult.
At the same time, the announcement gives several armed opposition movements a common platform from which to challenge the federal government.
The alliance says its ultimate objective is not simply military confrontation but the creation of a transitional political system that would end the country's conflicts and organise national dialogue.
Whether the groups can maintain unity and translate the agreement into coordinated action remains to be seen.

REGIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS

Any major escalation in Ethiopia could have consequences beyond the country's borders.
Ethiopia is a key power in the Horn of Africa and shares borders with Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea.
The region is already experiencing several conflicts, including the war in Sudan and continuing insecurity in Somalia.
A renewed large-scale Ethiopian conflict could therefore increase displacement and humanitarian needs while placing additional pressure on neighbouring countries.
For now, the formation of the seven-group alliance marks a significant development in Ethiopia's internal conflict, but the government's response and the ability of the groups to maintain their new partnership will determine how the situation develops.