China’s Population Falls Again in 2025 as Birth Rate Hits Record Low

China’s population fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, dropping to around 1.404 billion as its birth rate hit a record low of 5.63 per 1,000 people. Despite government incentives such as cash subsidies and tax breaks, the fertility rate remains at about one child per woman, far below the replacement level. India now has the world’s largest population, and UN projections suggest China’s population could fall to 800 million by 2100.

China experienced a population decline for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, as its birth rate dropped to the lowest level since records began nearly 80 years ago, according to data released by the country’s national statistics office in Beijing on Monday. Last year, only 7.92 million babies were born in China, pushing the birth rate down 17 percent to 5.63 births per 1,000 people. This represents the lowest birth rate since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 and highlights the country’s ongoing demographic challenges.
At the same time, China’s death rate remained at 8.04 per 1,000 people, resulting in an overall population decline. The nation’s population, once the largest in the world, now stands at approximately 1.404 billion, about 3 million fewer than in 2024. The decline comes after India surpassed China in population back in 2023, and India’s population currently stands at roughly 1.464 billion. If current trends continue, United Nations projections suggest that China’s population could shrink to around 800 million by the year 2100.
The population downturn continues despite the Chinese government’s repeated efforts over the past decade to encourage childbearing following the end of the country’s long-standing one-child policy. Measures intended to support families, including financial incentives, have so far failed to produce the desired results. In July 2025, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child, along with tax breaks for kindergartens, daycares, and matchmaking services. Despite these initiatives, the country’s fertility rate remains at roughly one child per woman over her lifetime, far below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman that is necessary to maintain the population.
Even controversial measures, such as a 13 percent tax increase on condoms and other contraceptives, have not succeeded in boosting birth rates. Analysts say that societal factors, including high costs of living, work pressures, and changing social attitudes toward marriage and family, are contributing to the persistent low fertility rate. The combination of declining births, continued high death rates, and an aging population is expected to have significant economic and social implications for China in the coming decades.
The population decline presents challenges for workforce sustainability, economic growth, and social support systems, and underscores the limitations of government interventions in reversing long-term demographic trends. As China faces this demographic shift, the nation may need to adopt broader social and economic policies to address declining fertility and support families if it hopes to stabilize its population in the future.