TPLF Withdraws From Mekelle As Ethiopian Federal Forces Prepare To Enter Tigray Capital

The TPLF says it has withdrawn from Mekelle, allowing Ethiopian federal forces and their allies to enter the Tigray capital after renewed fighting. The withdrawal is aimed at preventing further destruction, but tensions remain high. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea and Egypt of supporting the TPLF, while both countries deny the allegations. The crisis has also triggered a serious diplomatic dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea, while Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has travelled to Egypt for talks with President Abdel Fattah Al Sissi.

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) says it has withdrawn its forces from Mekelle, the regional capital of northern Ethiopia, clearing the way for Ethiopian federal troops and their allies to enter the city after renewed fighting raised fears of another major conflict in the country.
The TPLF said in a statement on Saturday that it had pulled its forces out of Mekelle in an attempt to prevent further destruction of the city and protect its residents. The group made a similar decision during the previous two year war in Tigray, which ended with a peace agreement in 2022.
Mekelle is one of Ethiopia’s largest cities and the political centre of the Tigray region. The latest developments have therefore raised concerns about a possible return to large scale fighting in an area that is still recovering from the devastating conflict that lasted from 2020 to 2022.

TPLF WITHDRAWS FROM MEKELLE

The TPLF had seized Mekelle and its airport last month as fighting intensified between forces aligned with the Tigrayan group and Ethiopia’s federal authorities.
TPLF forces took control of the airport on September 23, prompting Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to Mekelle as well as the Tigrayan cities of Axum and Shire.
The airport seizure disrupted an important link between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia. The suspension of flights also affected the movement of residents, officials and other travellers at a time when tensions in the region were already rising.
The African Union called for restraint and warned that renewed hostilities could put the 2022 peace agreement at risk.

WHY MEKELLE IS IMPORTANT

Mekelle is the administrative and political centre of Tigray. Control of the city therefore carries both practical and symbolic importance for the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal government.
The TPLF was once the dominant political force in Tigray and played a major role in Ethiopian national politics for decades. From 1991 until 2018, it was the leading force within the coalition that governed Ethiopia.
The political balance changed after Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018. Tensions between his government and the TPLF eventually developed into an armed conflict in 2020.
That war caused widespread destruction and a severe humanitarian crisis before the parties agreed to a peace deal in 2022.
The latest fighting has therefore revived fears that the gains made through that agreement could be lost.

TPLF JOINS OPPOSITION ALLIANCE

The renewed conflict is taking place alongside a broader political struggle against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
The TPLF is one of seven opposition groups that announced an alliance late last month. The groups say their objective is to remove Abiy from power.
The TPLF's involvement is particularly significant because of its historical influence in Ethiopia. Although the organisation lost its dominant national political position after Abiy came to power, it remains a powerful political and military force in Tigray.
The new alliance has therefore added another layer to Ethiopia's internal political tensions, with the conflict in Tigray now linked to a wider opposition movement.

ETHIOPIA ACCUSES ERITREA AND EGYPT

The renewed fighting has also created tensions beyond Ethiopia's borders.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea and Egypt of potentially supporting the TPLF. Both countries have rejected the allegations.
The accusation involving Egypt comes against the background of a long running dispute over Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River.
Egypt has strongly opposed the dam because of concerns about its potential impact on the flow of Nile water reaching the country. Ethiopia, however, regards the project as important to its economic development and electricity generation.
The disagreement over the dam has contributed to strained relations between Addis Ababa and Cairo for years.

ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA DIPLOMATIC CRISIS

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have also deteriorated sharply.
On Thursday, Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and ordered 10 Eritrean diplomats to leave Addis Ababa. Ethiopian authorities accused the diplomats of being involved in activities that posed a direct threat to Ethiopia's national security.
Eritrea responded by announcing that it was cutting diplomatic ties with Ethiopia.
The diplomatic confrontation has increased concerns that the Tigray conflict could develop into a wider regional crisis involving neighbouring countries.
Eritrea has rejected Ethiopia's accusations and accused Abiy's government of attempting to externalise what it considers an internal Ethiopian conflict.

ERITREAN PRESIDENT VISITS EGYPT

Against this tense background, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki travelled to Egypt on a working visit.
Eritrea's Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel said the visit was at the invitation of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sissi.
According to the minister, the two presidents were expected to discuss further strengthening bilateral relations.
The timing of the visit has attracted attention because of the growing tensions surrounding Tigray and Ethiopia's accusations against both Eritrea and Egypt. However, Egypt and Eritrea have denied supporting the TPLF.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

The withdrawal of TPLF forces from Mekelle could temporarily reduce the risk of heavy fighting inside the city, but it does not necessarily mean that the wider conflict has ended.
Federal forces and their allies are now positioned to regain access to the regional capital, while the TPLF remains part of a wider opposition alliance seeking political change in Ethiopia.
The major concern is whether the withdrawal will create space for negotiations or become another stage in a prolonged conflict.
For residents of Mekelle and other parts of Tigray, the immediate priority is likely to be safety, access to essential services and the prevention of another destructive war.
The African Union's call for restraint reflects the wider concern that renewed fighting could undermine the 2022 peace agreement and create instability not only in Tigray but across the Horn of Africa.