Global Powers Race for Zambia’s Copper Amid Boom and Growing Concerns

Zambia’s copper boom is attracting global powers and major investment due to rising demand from tech and green energy sectors. However, concerns persist over environmental damage and whether the wealth will benefit the wider population.

Zambia is experiencing a dramatic economic resurgence as global powers intensify competition for access to its vast copper reserves, a resource that has become increasingly critical in today’s technology-driven world. Demand for copper has surged sharply, fuelled by rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, the expansion of green energy infrastructure, and growing needs within the defence sector. This versatile metal plays a central role in powering electricity grids, supporting data centres, and enabling the production of electric vehicles, making it indispensable to modern industry.
The race to secure copper supplies has also brought geopolitical rivalries into sharper focus. Major economic powers such as China, the United States, European nations, and Gulf states are all vying for a stronger foothold in Zambia’s mining sector. Speaking at the African Mining Indaba conference, Hakainde Hichilema highlighted the country’s renewed appeal to investors, revealing that more than $12 billion has been injected into the mining industry since 2022. According to him, investor confidence has returned, signalling a new phase of growth for the sector.
Zambia holds a prominent position in the global copper market. It is Africa’s second-largest producer, behind the Democratic Republic of Congo, and ranks eighth worldwide, based on data from the US Geological Survey. Copper is a cornerstone of the country’s economy, contributing approximately 15 percent to its gross domestic product and accounting for over 70 percent of export revenues. The metal’s importance is further underscored by its role in renewable energy technologies such as solar panels and wind turbines.
Despite its strong production capacity, Zambia faces a major structural challenge in the form of limited domestic refining capabilities. Much of the copper extracted is exported in raw form, a practice often described as “pit-to-port,” where minimal value is added locally before shipment abroad. While output increased by 8 percent last year to exceed 890,000 metric tonnes, the government has set an ambitious target to triple production within the next decade. This expansion is expected to drive economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund projecting growth rates of 5.2 percent in 2025 and 5.8 percent the following year, placing Zambia among Africa’s fastest-growing economies.
President Hichilema expressed optimism about the country’s trajectory, stating that early investments are beginning to yield results. He also pointed to plans for a comprehensive nationwide geological survey aimed at identifying previously untapped mineral deposits, which could further boost production and attract additional investment.
However, the rapid growth of the mining sector has raised concerns about environmental sustainability and equitable wealth distribution. Experts warn that without proper safeguards, Zambia risks repeating historical patterns where resource wealth benefits a small elite while leaving the broader population behind. Daniel Litvin, founder of Resource Resolutions, cautioned that narratives of international partnership may conceal underlying self-interest among competing global powers.
China has long been a dominant force in Zambia’s mining industry, holding significant stakes in key mines and smelting operations. This early presence has given Beijing a strategic advantage. At the same time, Canada’s First Quantum Minerals remains a major player and is the country’s largest corporate taxpayer. New entrants from India and Gulf countries are also expanding their presence, while the United States is re-engaging after years of reduced involvement. Washington has recently launched a $12 billion initiative known as “Project Vault,” aimed at securing critical minerals and reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains.
The environmental impact of mining continues to be a pressing issue. In September, the US Trade and Development Agency provided a $1.4 million grant to Metalex Africa, a subsidiary of Metalex Commodities, to expand its operations in Zambia. Yet concerns persist that the intensifying global competition for copper could prioritise supply security over the well-being of local communities.
Deprose Muchena of the Open Society Foundation warned that the scramble for resources could become a race that serves international markets rather than the people of producing nations. This concern is particularly acute in Zambia, where more than 70 percent of the population—estimated at 21 million—lives in poverty, according to the World Bank. Despite its mineral wealth, the benefits have not been evenly distributed.
Muchena noted that while the world is increasingly recognising Zambia’s copper potential, the country has long borne the environmental and social consequences of mining. The copper belt region has suffered decades of environmental degradation. A stark example occurred in February 2025, when a tailings dam at a Chinese-owned mine near Kitwe collapsed, releasing millions of litres of acidic waste into nearby waterways. The contamination spread into a tributary of the Kafue River, the country’s longest river and a vital source of drinking water. The incident has led to an $80 billion lawsuit filed by affected farmers.
Ultimately, analysts stress that the long-term success of Zambia’s copper boom will depend on governance, respect for community rights, and sustainable practices. Whether the current surge in investment leads to broad-based prosperity or repeats past inequalities will hinge on how effectively the country balances economic growth with environmental protection and social inclusion.