Ethiopian Forces Take Control Of Mekelle As Fears Of Wider Tigray War Grow

Ethiopian federal forces have taken control of Mekelle after renewed fighting with the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The TPLF abandoned the regional capital, but its leadership has indicated that it could continue guerrilla-style attacks. The renewed conflict has raised fears of a return to Ethiopia's devastating 2020–2022 civil war and possible spillover into Eritrea and other parts of the Horn of Africa. Regional leaders meeting in Egypt have called for disputes to be resolved peacefully and through dialogue.

Ethiopian federal forces have taken full control of Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, after renewed fighting with the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) raised fears that the country could once again descend into a prolonged civil war.
Federal troops entered Mekelle on Saturday without encountering significant resistance after TPLF leaders and fighters abandoned the city.
A local journalist reported on Sunday that federal forces were patrolling the streets and had taken control of key government institutions. Communications were also restored after being disrupted for more than a week.
The latest fighting began on September 23, when clashes erupted between Ethiopian federal forces and the TPLF. The development has revived memories of the devastating war that tore through northern Ethiopia between 2020 and 2022.

FEDERAL FORCES TAKE CONTROL OF MEKELLE

The Ethiopian military's advance into Mekelle represents a major setback for the TPLF, which has historically regarded the city as its political and administrative stronghold.
After federal troops entered the city, they began patrolling important areas and securing government buildings and other key institutions.
A commander from a pro-government militia said the forces had taken control of Mekelle and were continuing their advance.
However, the situation in the city remained uncertain on Sunday.
Many shops and businesses stayed closed, while residents remained cautious about moving around. Some business owners had reportedly moved their goods to safer locations before the federal forces arrived because they feared looting and vandalism during the fighting.

RESIDENTS FEAR THE WAR COULD CONTINUE

Although the reduction in fighting around Mekelle brought some immediate relief, residents remained worried about what could happen next.
One resident said there was little visible police presence and that residents had organised themselves to provide security during the uncertainty.
Another resident, identified as Tewodros, said the reduction in the intensity of the fighting was welcome but expressed concern that the conflict could become prolonged.
The fear is particularly strong because the TPLF has previously continued fighting after losing control of Mekelle.
The possibility of renewed guerrilla warfare means that the federal government's capture of the city may not necessarily mark the end of the conflict.

TPLF LEADER VOWS TO KEEP FIGHTING

TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael has indicated that his forces could continue fighting even after losing Mekelle.
He suggested that the group would rely on guerrilla-style attacks, similar to the strategy it used during the previous war.
The TPLF lost Mekelle to federal forces in 2020 during the earlier conflict, but its fighters subsequently launched an insurgency and retook the city the following year.
Debretsion has said the group operates under a strategy that allows it to strike its opponents at locations and times of its choosing.
That raises the possibility that fighting could continue outside the regional capital even if federal forces maintain control of the city.

FEARS OF CONFLICT SPREADING TO ERITREA

The renewed fighting has also created concern that the conflict could spread beyond Ethiopia's borders.
Eritrea, which shares a long border with the Tigray region, is considered particularly important because of its longstanding tensions with Ethiopia and its proximity to the conflict.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly supporting the TPLF, while also alleging that Sudan and Egypt have provided support to the rebels. The countries involved have denied the accusations.
Eritrea, for its part, has accused Ethiopia of planning to invade its territory and obtain access to the Eritrean coastline.
The growing tension has therefore raised fears that renewed fighting in Tigray could develop into a wider regional confrontation involving several countries in the Horn of Africa.

REGIONAL LEADERS HOLD EMERGENCY MEETING IN EGYPT

As fighting intensified in Ethiopia, the leaders of several countries with difficult relations with Addis Ababa met in Egypt to discuss regional security.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sudanese Armed Forces leader Abdel Fattah Al Burhan attended the meeting in the Egyptian coastal city of El-Alamein.
The leaders called for regional disputes to be settled through peaceful means and stressed respect for international law and the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states.
The meeting took place against the backdrop of growing concern that Ethiopia's renewed conflict could destabilise an already fragile region.

EGYPT CALLS FOR DIALOGUE AND REGIONAL COOPERATION

Before the meeting, President Sisi called for dialogue as tensions surrounding Ethiopia increased.
He said disputes involving borders, natural resources and transboundary rivers should be addressed through cooperation rather than confrontation.
The leaders later issued a joint statement supporting international law and opposing unilateral actions that could negatively affect downstream countries.
The statement was widely viewed as relevant to the long-running dispute surrounding Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile.
Egypt has repeatedly expressed concern that the dam could affect the flow and availability of Nile water on which the country heavily depends.

EGYPT DENIES INVOLVEMENT IN ETHIOPIAN CONFLICT

Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have deteriorated further in recent months.
The two countries have been involved in a long-running dispute over the Nile dam, while their broader political relationship has also become increasingly strained.
The situation worsened this month after Egypt and Ethiopia expelled members of each other's diplomatic missions.
Despite the tensions, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Cairo had nothing to do with the latest events in Ethiopia.
He described the conflict as an internal crisis driven by ethnic and political divisions.
The denial came after Ethiopia accused Egypt, alongside Eritrea and Sudan, of supporting the Tigray rebels.

TIGRAY HAS A LONG HISTORY OF POLITICAL POWER

The TPLF has played a central role in Ethiopian politics for decades.
The group was the dominant political force in Ethiopia from 1991 until 2018, when its influence declined following the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who comes from the Oromia region.
The political tensions between the federal government and the TPLF eventually developed into a full-scale war in 2020.
The conflict caused enormous destruction and a major humanitarian crisis across Tigray and surrounding areas.
According to the African Union, more than 600,000 people died during the 2020–2022 war, making it one of the deadliest conflicts in the world in recent years.

2022 PEACE AGREEMENT FAILED TO FULLY RESOLVE TENSIONS

The previous war formally moved towards an end with the Pretoria peace agreement in 2022, which was brokered with the involvement of African institutions and the United States.
The agreement helped reduce the intensity of the fighting and prevented a continuation of the full-scale war.
However, many of its provisions were never fully implemented, leaving several political and security issues unresolved.
A degree of stability remained in Tigray for a period, but tensions began rising again before the latest clashes.
The renewed fighting has therefore raised concerns that unresolved issues from the previous conflict could once again develop into a major war.

REGIONAL STABILITY NOW AT RISK

The latest developments have implications far beyond Tigray.
Ethiopia is one of Africa's most populous countries and plays a major political and security role in the Horn of Africa. A prolonged conflict could create further displacement, disrupt trade and increase pressure on neighbouring countries.
A wider conflict involving Eritrea, Sudan, Egypt or Somalia could make the situation considerably more difficult to contain.
For residents of Mekelle and other affected communities, the immediate priority is an end to the fighting and a return to normal life.
But with the TPLF indicating that it may continue its armed campaign and regional governments openly discussing the risks, the capture of Mekelle may represent a new phase of the conflict rather than its conclusion.