Ethiopia Warns Of Wider Conflict As Tigray Fighting Shatters Peace Deal

Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde has told the UN General Assembly that Ethiopia has shown “immense restraint” despite what he described as external interference, as renewed fighting erupts between Tigray forces and the federal government. The clashes have shattered the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war and raised fears of a wider conflict involving neighbouring regions and countries. The fighting has also disrupted air travel, with Ethiopian Airlines suspending flights to several Tigray airports. Both sides have blamed each other for the escalation.

ETHIOPIA SAYS IT HAS SHOWN RESTRAINT

Ethiopian President Taye Atske-Selassie Amde has told world leaders that his country has exercised “immense restraint” despite what he described as interference by hostile external actors.
Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Wednesday, the president called for respect for peace and stability across the Horn of Africa.
His speech came only hours after renewed fighting erupted between forces linked to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia's federal government, raising fears that the country could be heading towards another major conflict.

NEW FIGHTING BREAKS OUT IN TIGRAY

Forces from Tigray launched what was described as a major offensive against federal government positions on Wednesday.
The renewed clashes represent the most serious challenge yet to the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the devastating two-year Tigray war.
Tigrayan authorities have described their actions as defensive, saying their forces were responding to what they called aggression by the federal government.
The Ethiopian government, meanwhile, has accused the TPLF of violating the peace agreement and contributing to renewed instability.
The competing accounts mean that responsibility for triggering the latest fighting remains disputed.

PEACE DEAL ENDED FOUR YEARS OF WAR

The previous Tigray war lasted from 2020 to 2022 and caused enormous loss of life and displacement.
The conflict pitted the TPLF-led Tigray regional government against Ethiopia's federal forces, with Eritrean troops and other forces also becoming involved.
The Pretoria Agreement, signed in November 2022, brought an end to large-scale fighting and provided for a permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament of Tigrayan forces and a political process.
However, important disputes remained unresolved, including territorial questions, the return of displaced people and the full implementation of the disarmament process.

TENSIONS HAD BEEN BUILDING FOR MONTHS

The latest fighting did not come without warning.
Relations between the federal government and the TPLF had deteriorated over months, with disputes over political authority, security arrangements and territory.
Earlier in September, seven Ethiopian armed groups, including the TPLF and Amhara Fano, announced an alliance aimed at challenging Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
The alliance brings together groups that previously fought on opposing sides of the Tigray war, adding another layer to Ethiopia's already complicated security situation.

FIGHTING SPREADS BEYOND TIGRAY

Reports indicate that the latest clashes have not been limited to Tigray.
Fighting has also been reported in the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, with Tigrayan forces reportedly fighting alongside local armed groups.
Amhara Fano previously fought alongside federal forces during the Tigray war but later turned against the government.
The emergence of cooperation between former enemies has increased concerns that a new conflict could draw in several regions of Ethiopia rather than remain confined to Tigray.

AIRPORTS SEIZED AS SECURITY DETERIORATES

The escalation has also disrupted air travel.
Reports said Tigrayan forces took control of federally controlled airports in parts of Tigray, including Mekelle, while Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Axum and Shire.
The airline cited the security situation and cancelled services to the three airports as fighting intensified.
The disruption is significant because air travel is an important link between Tigray and the rest of Ethiopia, particularly after years of conflict and damaged infrastructure.

ETHIOPIA ACCUSES EXTERNAL ACTORS

President Taye Atske-Selassie used his UN speech to accuse unnamed external actors of interfering in Ethiopia's internal affairs.
The government has separately accused Eritrea of supporting armed groups opposed to Prime Minister Abiy's government.
Eritrea has repeatedly rejected such accusations.
The involvement of neighbouring countries is particularly sensitive because Eritrea fought Ethiopia in a border war from 1998 to 2000 and later supported Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray conflict.

FEARS OF A WIDER HORN OF AFRICA CONFLICT

The renewed fighting is occurring in a region already facing several major security crises.
Sudan is still experiencing a devastating civil war, while tensions remain high around the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.
Analysts have warned that further escalation in Ethiopia could interact with existing regional conflicts and create new displacement and humanitarian problems.
The International Crisis Group has warned that allegations involving Eritrea could contribute to a broader regional confrontation.

CIVILIANS FACE THE GREATEST RISK

The previous Tigray war caused widespread displacement and severe humanitarian suffering.
About one million people remain displaced in the region, according to reporting cited by Al Jazeera, while many communities continue to struggle with the consequences of the previous conflict.
A return to large-scale fighting could therefore have consequences far beyond the battlefield.
Families could again be forced from their homes, transport and trade could be disrupted, and access to food, healthcare and other essential services could become more difficult.

GOVERNMENT CALLS FOR PEACE

Despite the military escalation, Ethiopia's president used his address to the UN to stress the importance of peace in the Horn of Africa.
He called on what he described as forces of destruction to respect the region's right to peace and prosperity.
The challenge now is whether renewed fighting can be contained before it develops into a wider conflict involving multiple armed groups and neighbouring countries.

A FRAGILE PEACE UNDER PRESSURE

The Pretoria Agreement ended one of Africa's most devastating recent conflicts, but it did not resolve every political, territorial and security dispute in northern Ethiopia.
The latest fighting shows how quickly unresolved tensions can turn back into armed confrontation.
For millions of Ethiopians who experienced the 2020–2022 war, the renewed clashes have revived fears of another prolonged conflict.
The immediate priority for civilians and regional governments will be preventing the latest escalation from developing into another full-scale war.