Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Expected To Fall Slightly In 2026 But Climate Gains Remain Fragile

Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall by about 0.4 per cent in 2026, mainly because high energy prices and disruptions linked to the war involving the United States and Iran have reduced oil, gas and coal consumption. However, researchers warn that the decline may be temporary, while total global carbon dioxide emissions are still expected to rise by about 1 per cent due largely to deforestation and peat fires. The study says a lasting reduction will require faster expansion of renewable energy and other clean technologies.

Global emissions from fossil fuels are expected to decline slightly in 2026, marking a rare drop in pollution from oil, gas and coal. However, researchers say the decline is being driven largely by high energy prices linked to the war involving the United States and Iran and disruptions to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz rather than by a lasting shift away from fossil fuels.
The study estimates that emissions from fossil fuels will fall by about 0.4 per cent this year. That compares with an average annual increase of around 0.9 per cent over the past decade.
Researchers described the decline as a small positive development but warned that it does not yet represent a structural change in the global energy system.

HIGH ENERGY PRICES HELP REDUCE FOSSIL FUEL USE

According to the researchers, the disruption of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to higher oil and gas prices, affecting energy consumption in several parts of the world.
Higher prices can encourage households, businesses and industries to reduce energy use or seek alternative sources. However, the researchers stressed that the current reduction in fossil fuel emissions is largely connected to geopolitical disruption rather than a planned transition to cleaner energy.
Glen Peters, a co-author of the study from Norway's CICERO Center for International Climate Research, said the decline was positive on the surface but was occurring for reasons that do not necessarily indicate long-term progress in tackling climate change.
The researchers therefore caution against interpreting the 2026 figures as proof that global fossil fuel use has permanently entered a downward trend.

EMISSIONS HAVE FALLEN BEFORE

The projected decline in fossil fuel emissions would be only the third significant drop in recent years.
Previous declines occurred during the global financial crisis in 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In both cases, emissions increased again when economic activity recovered.
This history is important because it shows that a temporary reduction in fossil fuel consumption does not necessarily lead to a lasting reduction in global carbon pollution.
A structural change would involve emissions reaching a sustained peak before continuing to decline over several years. Researchers say the pattern seen in 2026 does not yet demonstrate that kind of transition.
Instead, oil emissions are expected to rise before dropping sharply during the year, reflecting the effects of the energy market disruption.

RENEWABLE ENERGY IS ALSO MAKING A DIFFERENCE

The study also points to continued growth in renewable energy as another factor influencing global emissions.
Solar power, wind energy and electric vehicles are increasingly replacing some fossil fuel use in electricity generation and transportation.
However, researchers said the expansion of clean energy has not yet been sufficient to produce a major and sustained decline in overall fossil fuel emissions.
The rapid deployment of renewable energy remains one of the most important long-term strategies for reducing carbon pollution.
Pierre Friedlingstein, another co-author of the study, said the long-term solution remains the rapid expansion of clean energy technologies.
This means increasing investment in solar and wind power, expanding electricity networks, improving energy storage and increasing the use of electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies.

TOTAL GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS ARE STILL RISING

Despite the expected decline in fossil fuel emissions, the study warns that total global carbon dioxide emissions are still projected to increase by about 1 per cent in 2026.
The difference is partly explained by changes in land use.
Deforestation and peat fires release large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The increase in these emissions is expected to outweigh the small reduction resulting from lower fossil fuel consumption.
This means the world could record a decline in emissions from oil, gas and coal while still experiencing an overall increase in carbon dioxide pollution.

COP31 FACES A MAJOR CLIMATE CHALLENGE

The findings come as world leaders gather in Turkey for the United Nations COP31 climate conference.
The figures provide an important backdrop to discussions about how countries can accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The temporary fall in fossil fuel emissions may offer some encouragement, but researchers warn that geopolitical disruptions cannot substitute for deliberate climate policies.
A lasting reduction would require countries to reduce their dependence on coal, oil and gas while expanding clean energy and addressing emissions from deforestation and other land-use changes.

WHY THE 2026 DECLINE MAY NOT LAST

The main concern for climate researchers is that emissions could rise again if energy markets stabilise and economic activity strengthens.
The declines recorded during the 2009 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic were followed by renewed increases in carbon emissions. A similar pattern could occur if the current reduction is mainly the result of temporary energy market disruptions.
For the decline to become meaningful climate progress, fossil fuel emissions would need to continue falling even after energy prices and supply conditions return to normal.
The 2026 figures therefore present a mixed picture. Fossil fuel emissions may fall slightly, but total carbon dioxide emissions are still rising, while the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
The longer-term climate challenge will be to turn temporary reductions into a sustained downward trend through clean energy investment, reduced deforestation and stronger policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions.