Ethiopia’s Ruling Party Secures Landslide Victory, Raising Questions Over Peace and Stability Under Abiy Ahmed

Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party has won a landslide parliamentary victory, securing 438 of 486 seats, effectively extending Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rule. However, the win comes amid ongoing insecurity in parts of Tigray, Amhara and Oromia, where elections were partially disrupted. While the result confirms strong political dominance, the main challenge ahead is whether the government can achieve lasting peace, national unity, and economic stability.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party has secured a sweeping victory in the country's parliamentary elections, winning 438 of the 486 seats in the House of Peoples' Representatives, according to official results announced by the National Elections Board of Ethiopia (NEBE).
The result effectively guarantees Abiy another five years in office, extending a political journey that began in 2018 and has transformed Ethiopia's political landscape.
Yet while the election outcome confirms the ruling party's dominance, it also raises deeper questions about the future of Africa's second most populous nation.
Can Abiy Ahmed use his renewed mandate to heal divisions, end persistent conflicts and steer Ethiopia toward lasting stability?
For many observers, that question may prove more important than the election result itself.

THE REAL QUESTION FACING ETHIOPIA

The Prosperity Party's overwhelming victory was widely anticipated.
More than 40 political parties participated in the elections, yet most opposition groups lacked the financial resources, organizational strength and nationwide presence necessary to mount a serious challenge.
The ruling party contested 461 constituencies and faced no opposition in 64 of them.
By contrast, Ezema, the largest opposition challenger, fielded candidates in only 293 constituencies.
The result means the Prosperity Party secured roughly 90 percent of the contested seats, cementing its position as Ethiopia's dominant political force.
However, analysts argue that the most significant challenge facing the government lies beyond electoral success.
Voting was suspended in parts of the Tigray, Amhara and Oromia regions due to ongoing insecurity and conflict.
The absence of voting in these regions highlights a central reality confronting Ethiopia: significant parts of the country continue to experience instability despite efforts to restore peace.
For critics, this raises questions about the inclusiveness of the electoral process and the extent to which the results reflect the views of all Ethiopians.

A LEADERSHIP THAT BEGAN WITH HIGH EXPECTATIONS

When Abiy Ahmed assumed office in 2018, he was widely regarded as a transformative figure.
He introduced a series of reforms aimed at opening Ethiopia's political space after years of tight political control.
Political prisoners were released, exiled opposition figures returned home and restrictions on the media were eased.
Abiy's decision to normalize relations with neighboring Eritrea ended two decades of hostility between the two countries and earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
At the time, many believed Ethiopia was entering a new democratic era.
However, the optimism surrounding those reforms was later overshadowed by conflict.

THE CONFLICTS THAT CHANGED ETHIOPIA

The conflict in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, which erupted in November 2020, became one of the deadliest conflicts in modern African history.
The war displaced millions of people, caused widespread humanitarian suffering and severely strained Ethiopia's political and social fabric.
Although a peace agreement signed in Pretoria in November 2022 formally ended major hostilities, reconstruction and reconciliation efforts remain ongoing.
Beyond Tigray, security challenges continue in the Amhara and Oromia regions.
Armed confrontations, ethnic tensions and localized violence have persisted, complicating government efforts to stabilize the country.
Many analysts believe these unresolved conflicts represent the greatest challenge facing Abiy's new administration.
Without sustained peace, experts warn that economic development and political reforms may remain difficult to achieve.

WHY THE OPPOSITION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE

The latest election once again demonstrated the difficulties facing Ethiopia's opposition parties.
Many opposition groups continue to struggle with limited funding, weak organizational structures and restricted access to large sections of the electorate.
Some opposition figures have also argued that the political environment remains uneven, making it difficult to compete effectively against the ruling party.
Supporters of the government reject these claims, arguing that the Prosperity Party's victory reflects broad public support and confidence in its leadership.
Nevertheless, political analysts say the strength of democratic institutions often depends on the existence of credible opposition parties capable of providing effective oversight and alternative policy choices.
The absence of strong opposition representation in parliament may therefore raise concerns about political pluralism and democratic accountability.

LOOKING ACROSS AFRICA

Ethiopia's election outcome reflects broader political patterns visible across several African countries.
In nations including Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania, ruling parties have maintained dominant positions for extended periods, often benefiting from established political networks and extensive organizational capacity.
Supporters argue that strong governing parties can provide continuity, stability and long-term policy implementation.
Critics, however, caution that prolonged political dominance can weaken democratic competition and reduce institutional checks and balances.
Across Africa, governments continue to face the challenge of balancing political stability with democratic openness.
Ethiopia's experience is likely to remain part of this wider continental debate.

WHY ORDINARY ETHIOPIANS SHOULD CARE

For millions of Ethiopians, political developments are important primarily because of their impact on everyday life.
Many citizens are more concerned about peace, security, employment opportunities, inflation and access to essential services than electoral statistics.
Years of conflict have placed significant pressure on the economy, disrupted livelihoods and displaced communities.
As a result, public expectations for the government's next term are considerable.
Citizens across the country are likely to judge the administration not only by its political achievements but also by its ability to improve living standards and restore security.
Economic recovery, job creation and national reconciliation are expected to remain among the government's highest priorities.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

The newly elected parliament is expected to formally elect Abiy Ahmed as prime minister for another term.
Attention will then shift toward the government's policy agenda.
Observers will closely watch whether the administration introduces additional reforms, strengthens reconciliation efforts and pursues political dialogue with opposition groups.
The government's handling of security challenges in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia will also attract significant domestic and international scrutiny.
International partners are likely to continue encouraging Ethiopia to pursue inclusive governance, human rights protections and sustainable peace initiatives.

THE BIGGER STORY

The latest election confirms that Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party remain Ethiopia's most powerful political force.
Yet electoral dominance alone cannot resolve Ethiopia's deeper challenges.
The country's future will depend not only on political victories but also on the government's ability to foster peace, strengthen institutions and rebuild trust among diverse communities.
The coming five years may therefore prove decisive.
For Ethiopia, the central question is no longer whether Abiy Ahmed can win elections.
It is whether he can transform political power into lasting peace, national unity and sustainable development.